Market Changes to 15 Aug 2011
Westfield NJ Real Estate trends by typical and new measures.
Let’s say we own an egg store, selling hen’s eggs, quail eggs, organic eggs and Brontosaurus eggs, ranging in price from a few dollars a dozen to $1 million per egg. In 2007 we sold a bunch of Brontosaurus eggs and a healthy plethora of the rest. We hit an historic high for average price, median price, and total unit and dollar volume.
In 2011 we sold a single Brontosaurus egg and a decent plethora of the rest. volume was off plain and simple. What’s more complex is calculating the change in value of a gram of egg protein. Because the number of sales at the top of the range was way off, and because the values at the top were off, the mean and median prices of eggs was dramatically down. But these measures are skewed by the distribution of sales within the price range. So how do we adjust, to get a more accurate measure of changes in egg protein values?
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I am about to mention assessed values of Westfield homes. Assessed values are never to be relied upon to calculate home values, because of all the real estate market value factors that are not counted in the assessment–especially cosmetic updates which carry a highly leveraged effect on market value, or ick factors like pet odors, difficulty showing, etc. Assessments were calculated many years ago and have not been recalculated except pursuant to additions. In NJ there is no “assessment on sale” so it is really just an assessment of cubic feet of the house, room count and bath count, and sq. ft. of land adjusted for neighborhood.
Now back to our story. . .to get a measure of what they are paying for houses for sale in Westfield NJ, in a more apples to apples way, I crunched the numbers of all resales in 2007, and 12 months back from 1 Aug 11. (I cleansed the data of new construction because assessments are not provided in the listing information. In Westfield there are stil) I averaged the sale prices as a percentage of assessed value, and voila a new way of checking real estate trends. It seems that change in values, house for house, is less severe than by standard measures.
Of course there are myriad exceptions and anomolies within any data group. We are just banking on the idea that in a basket of several hundred examples, the anomolies balance out and the trend emerges.
For a specific evaluation of your home’s value, Simply click for consultation or call Scott for your free, no strings consultation.
Market Changes 15 Apr 2011 to 15 May 2011
TALE OF TWO CITIES CONTINUED-year to date stats for two busy markets we cover:
Up to May 15th, Westfield has had 138 contracts signed, up 13% from
the same period 2010. The median list price of properties sold is down 9.8% to $665,000. Selling at the current rate, the inventory of 175 houses would sell out in 7 months.
North Edison has had 60 contracts in the same period, down 39% from 2010, with a median list price of $489,900. With the median asking price up $10,000 from 2010, Edison would take 14.6 months to sell off its inventory at the current pace.
To sell in the current market, whatever your reason, timing and price range, “it’s a beauty contest and a price war all at once.” For a free, specific valuation of your property, or market-preparation guidance, just call–908-698-2630
Market Changes 15 Mar 2011 to 15 Apr 2011
TALE OF TWO CITIES-There is good news and bad news coming in quite different forms from two of the busier markets we cover. Before we look at the numbers, let’s remember these are quarterly closing numbers, with lots of room for anomolies to exaggerate the reality. Also we are comparing last year’s tax rebate bubble to this year’s self reliant market.
In North Edison the average sale price for the first quarter of 2011 is “only” off 9% from Q1 2010. The bad news is the absorption rate (how long it would take to sell off the current inventory at the current sales pace, based on 3 month look back at contracts signed.) I subdivided the inventory at $749,000, which is about the 75th percentile for the area. In the high tier, there has been 1 sale per month, with 37 more to sell–a 37 month supply. In the lower 75%, there were 8.66 sales a month, with 123 houses available, for an absorption rate of 14.2 months.
In Westfield, the overall average sale price for the 1st quarter is down 16% compared to Q1 2010. The good news is the sales pace. Dividing the price range at the 75th percentile again, ($995,000,) the high tier is selling at a 6.6 month rate. In the lower 75% it’s a “seller’s market” with an absorption rate of 4.6 months.
Market Changes 15 Nov to Dec 15 2010
They don’t ring a bell at the bottom of the market, but we know this isn’t the top. Meanwhile, the cost of money and the cost of houses are historically low. If you have been waiting for a “perfect” time or circumstance to become an investor, this may be that time. If you are a VIP club member, you will be invited to an investors’ seminar soon. If you aren’t a VIP yet, find the VIP lounge on this site to join!
Real Estate “Spring Market” Will Be Early and Brief
“If you wait for the robins you will miss the spring” said Warren Buffet in 2008. Born, raised and still in Nebraska, he was applying a farm aphorism to investing. And he was right again.
Now let us apply that same old saw to real estate seasons.
In January, bonuses (aka down payments) are known if not already paid out, relocations and promotions are announced and the holidays are over. Motivated, qualified buyers are out shopping and the inventory is at it’s low ebb for the year.
Although 2011-2014 will be a buyer’s market overall, the supply/demand needle will be closest to the seller’s side in the first months of each year, when the early birds are doing business while the robins wait for “spring.”
In other words, what is traditionally called the “spring market” is really the tail end of the best market for sellers.
Five ideas for market success in 2011
1. Realize “many are called but few are chosen.” Available houses will outnumber qualified, motivated buyers. Plan to compete for the cash.
2. Know who your friends are. Time is not your friend, but we are. We will help you prepare, price and promote for optimum results. We will give you all the support and connections you need to get to market promptly and profitably.
3. Open with a bang, not a whimper. We provide and pay for your comprehensive staging consultation as part of our service, so that your time, energy and preparation dollars (if any) are expended for the very best impression in your all defining grand opening week.
4. Experience isn’t expensive, it’s priceless. We are proud to show you our 15 year success record and develop a fee structure that assures you the very best return on your investment.
5. Start Now. The earlier you involve us, the more painless and profitable it will be for you. Simply click for consultation or call Scott for your free, no strings consultation.
Market Changes Since 1 Oct 2010
They don’t ring a bell at the bottom of the market, but we know this isn’t the top. Meanwhile, the cost of money and the cost of houses are historically low. If you have been waiting for a “perfect” time or circumstance to become an investor, this may be that time. If you are a VIP club member, you will be invited to an investors’ seminar soon. If you aren’t a VIP yet, find the VIP lounge on this site to join!
