October 2026 Market Update

by Scott Gleason

Two More Data Points from the August Update

In the towns we study, prices are still rising. We expect appreciation of 3–5%, depending on each town’s reputation for transit and schools.

That is a gentle pace compared with the double-digit gains some towns posted in recent years, including 2026.

Inventory constraints continue to push prices higher, but buyers are finding some relief in the form of softer competition. Some buyers have folded their tents after failing to find an acceptable home at a price they can afford. Others grew discouraged when rising rates forced them to lower their expectations: a 1% rise in rates cuts a buyer’s price range by roughly 10%. Imagine you qualified for $1,500,000, had not yet found your home, and woke up to a new price ceiling of $1,350,000. For buyers who persist, the silver lining is that homes may begin to sell closer to list price. The turnkey home that once was certain to sell for 120% of list may regress toward the current average of 107%, and that average may ease as well.

Are sellers paying attention? Not all of them. Some still apply the appreciation rates of a year or two ago to their homes today. Many also believe their home is better than the one down the block, simply because it is theirs. Others assume they can skip the preparation and investment the most successful sellers made to achieve their prices. These missteps are driving the rise in “price improvements” made after several weeks on the market. Nothing signals more clearly that buyers now control the final price than days on market and price changes.